What are the experts saying about the Russian-Ukraine war? How has the balance of power shifted? Are Russia gaining the upper hand and is Ukraine likely to fall soon?
As we move through early 2026, the consensus among military experts and geopolitical analysts is that while Russia currently holds the strategic initiative, the war remains a “grinding” conflict rather than a swift Russian victory.
The idea that Ukraine will “fall soon” is generally dismissed by experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), though they acknowledge Ukraine is facing its most precarious period since the initial 2022 invasion.
1. Has Russia Gained the Upper Hand?
Yes, tactically, but at a staggering cost.
Territorial Gains: Russia has increased its pace of advance recently. In early 2026, Russian forces captured approximately 182 square miles in a single month (mid-January to mid-February), a significant jump from late 2025.
Attrition Rates: Experts describe these gains as “Pyrrhic.” Russia is suffering an estimated 20,000 to 25,000 deaths per month. Since 2022, total casualties (killed and wounded) are estimated at nearly 1.2 to 1.4 million.
The “Somme” Comparison: Some analysts note that in certain sectors, Russian advances are moving at just 15 to 70 meters per day—slower than the infamous trench warfare of World War I.
2. Is Ukraine Likely to Fall Soon?
No, but it is “bending.”
Defensive Resilience: While Ukraine is losing ground in the Donbas (specifically around the “Fortress Belt” of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk), its defensive lines have not collapsed.
The Power Crisis: Russia’s primary leverage is currently its air campaign. Massive strikes in February 2026 have severely crippled Ukraine’s energy grid, forcing emergency power cuts nationwide and pressuring the civilian population.
The Diplomatic Pivot: Rather than a military collapse, experts see a shift toward negotiated concessions. There are reports that Kyiv may be considering a “20-point peace plan” involving territorial freezes in exchange for ironclad security guarantees from the West.
3. Key Experts’ Projections for 2026
Experts point to three critical “stress points” that will define this year:
| Feature | Outlook for 2026 |
| Russian Economy | High interest rates (16%+) and labor shortages are creating a “fiscal crunch.” Experts believe Russia’s ability to sustain current spending may hit a wall by late 2026. |
| Military Equipment | Russia is depleting its Soviet-era tank and artillery reserves. Analysts predict they may run out of recoverable old equipment by the end of 2026 or early 2027. |
| Ukrainian Manpower | This is Ukraine’s “Achilles’ heel.” Internal reports suggest significant issues with draft dodging and exhaustion, making Western technology (drones and AI) their primary equalizer. |
Summary
The balance of power has shifted toward Russia in terms of momentum, but they lack the “knockout blow” capability to seize the entire country. The prevailing expert view is that 2026 is less likely to be the year of Ukraine’s fall and more likely to be the year of “Hybrid Escalation” or a forced transition to a frozen conflict (a “Korean Scenario”).
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